Center for Business and Economic Research

Guilford County Business Index

The level of economic activity in Guilford County, NC, as measured by the Guilford Business Index (1992 = 100), rose 0.3 percent in August (see Table 1). The index, which tracks the pace of economic activity in Guilford County, registered 152.1. This was the 4th consecutive monthly increase in the index since April.

Over the past year, economic activity in Guilford County has fallen more than in the Triad¹ at large. The Guilford Index has dropped -3.4 percent compared to a -1.2 percent decline recorded by the Triad Business Index.

¹The Triad is defined as an eight-county area that is composed of Alamance, Davie, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph, Rockingham, Stokes, and Yadkin.

Guilford Business Index
(1992 = 100)

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Guilford County in August was 10.8 percent, down -0.1 percentage points from the revised figure for July. The rate of unemployment this month was up from 6.5 percent one year ago.

The unemployment rate reflects the percentage of the labor force which is unemployed but actively seeking employment. It generally is considered to be a lagging economic indicator. The rate is tabulated each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics based on a nationwide survey of households.

Employment

The number of persons employed in Guilford County (from the household survey) stood at 217,100 essentially unchanged from July. In comparison, national employment (from the household survey) declined -0.3 percent this month. Over the past 12 months, county employment has fallen -6.7 percent, while at the national level, employment (from the household survey) has dipped -3.9 percent.

The number that is reported here for persons employed in Guilford County is tabulated each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics based on its monthly household survey. It reflects the number of persons living in Guilford County who reported they were actively employed during the month. Employment normally is considered to by a very strong, consistent coincident indicator of economic activity.

Guilford County Employment

Initial Claims

Initial claims represent first-time filers for unemployment compensation and are generally considered a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. In August, initial claims moved down 1.0 percent after jumping 72.6 percent over the past 12 months. There were 4,396 first-time filers for unemployment insurance this month, or 2.0 percent of those employed in the county. Nationally, claims rose 3.0 percent in August after declining in June and July, providing evidence of the fragility of the economic recovery.

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending is normally thought to be a coincident indicator of economic activity. Spending, as measured by retail sales, was up 2.7 percent in August, after correction for price-level change. Over the past year, retail sales have fallen -6.7 percent in Guilford County, while, at the national level, real retail sales were off -3.9 percent.

Guilford County sales tax collections are down -17.5 percent over the past 12 months, unadjusted for inflation.

Residential Building Permits

Planned building activity, as measured by residential building permits (calculated on a year-to-date basis), fell -42.4 percent compared to August of last year. Single-family permits are down -43.4 percent.

Residential building permits reflect the plans of builders for future residential construction. Permits generally lead actual building starts by 3 to 6 months and are considered an important leading indicator of future economic activity.

Building Permits
(number, year-to-date)

Housing Prices and Sales

In a major turnaround, housing prices in Guilford County rose 0.7 percent in the 3rd quarter but still are down -7.1 percent from the same period one year ago. The number of homes sold jumped 22.2 percent in the 3rd quarter and is up 4.7 percent from last year. The number of homes listed for sale is up 30.9 percent from the 2nd quarter. At the existing sales pace, it will take 13.1 months to exhaust the stock of homes on the market.

The housing sales and price data reported here are collected from the Triad Multiple Listing Service and reflect the sales and average prices paid for existing single-family homes in the county. Sale prices are quality adjusted to standardize the price series for size and other housing attributes. Housing sales and prices are a coincident indicator of economic activity. Generally, housing sales tend to lead any turn in housing prices.

Single-Family Existing Homes
(3rd Quarter, 2009)

There were 365 real estate foreclosures in August and 3,614 over the past 12 months. The number in August was up 17.4 percent from August of last year. Foreclosures represent forced sales and are a depressing influence in the housing market.

Table 1:  Guilford  Business Indicators
(August 2009)

All data are statistically adjusted to eliminate statistical aberrations unrelated to trend and cycle. Monetary figures are deflated by the CPI-U to reflect inflation-adjusted 2009 dollars.

Figures are compiled by Dr. G. Donald Jud, Bryan School of Business & Economics, UNCG, Phone: 336/334-3091 E-mail: Juddon@uncg.edu.  This report is available on the Web at http://www.uncg.edu/~juddon