Center for Business and Economic Research
Triad Business Index
The level of economic activity in the Piedmont Triad¹, as measured by the Piedmont Triad Business Index (1992 = 100), rose 0.3 percent in August, recording its 4th gain since April. In comparison, over the past year the index has fallen -1.1 percent. In comparison, business activity in NC was unchanged this month and has declined -1.8 percent over the past year.
Triad Business Index
(1992 = 100)
¹ The Triad is defined as an eight-county area that is composed of Alamance, Davie, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph, Rockingham, Stokes, and Yadkin.
The national index of leading indicators was up 0.6 percent in August, recording its 5th consecutive monthly gain and signaling strongly that the national economy has entered a recovery. The Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.9, indicating a rise in manufacturing activity and suggesting that the overall economy expanded at a 3.4 percent annualized rate in August.
National Economic Indicators
Two monetary indicators which normally lead any upturn in the national economy remained strongly in positive territory. The real monetary base exploded upward by 101.1 percent over the past 12 months, as the Federal Reserve aggressively expanded its balance sheet extending credit to the banking system. The spread between the 10-year T-bond and the federal funds rate (or the slope of the Treasury Yield Curve) was 3.4 percent, reflecting continued monetary ease. Both of these indicators continue to point toward an economic recovery.
Monetary Indicators
The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment in the Triad was 11.0 percent in August, down 0.1 percentage points this month, but up 4.3 percentage points over the past 12 months. The national unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, up 0.3 percentage points this month, but up 3.5 percentage points over the past year.
Unemployment Rate
(seasonally adjusted)
Initial claims for unemployment insurance are a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. Claims in the Triad were up 1.0 percent in August and have risen 143.2 percent over the past 12 months. In August, there were 10,323 new unemployment claims, or 1.7 percent of those employed in the Triad. Nationally, claims rose 9.7 percent in August after having fallen -15.4 since March.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
(seasonally adjusted)
Total nonagricultural wage and salary employment (employer survey) in the Piedmont Triad was off -0.1 percent in August. Over the past 12 months, employment has fallen -4.7 percent. For the nation as a whole, employment dipped -0.2 percent in August. Over the past 12 months, national employment has declined -4.3 percent.
Total Employment
(seasonally adjusted)
Goods-producing employment in the Triad was down -0.4 percent in August. At the national level, goods-producing employment was off -0.7 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of goods-producing jobs in the Triad has fallen -12.5 percent, while goods-producing employment nationally has declined -13.0 percent.
Goods Producing Employment
(seasonally adjusted, log scale)
The number of persons in the Triad employed in the service-producing sector was essentially unchanged in August, but higher employment was recorded this month in professional & business services, education & healthcare, leisure, government, and other services. Over the past 12 months, the number of jobs in the service-producing sector has fallen -2.7 percent, while service producing employment nationally has lost -2.6 percent. Over the past year in the Triad, service-producing employment has grown in education/healthcare services, where employment has increased 2.1 percent. Employment has declined in every other sector of the service economy. The largest declines were in information services and transportation, where employment fell -10.3 and -10.2 percent respectively.
Service-Producing Employment
(percent change last 12 months)
In a continuing turnaround, residential building permits in the Triad, which reflect planned construction, were up 3.7 percent this month, rising for the 6th consecutive month. Over the past 12 months, the pace of planned residential building has fallen -8.6 percent. Construction employment has fallen -17.9 percent over the past year and was off -0.4 percent this month.
Residential Building Permits
(inflation-adjusted, normalized scale)
Retail sales totaled $1.56 billion in August. Corrected for inflation and seasonal variation, retail spending was up 2.2 percent from July but was off -5.1 percent from August of last year.
Total employment across the state has declined -5.1 percent during the past 12 months. Among major metropolitan areas, employment has fallen in every area of the state. Employment recorded the largest declines in Hickory, Charlotte, and Greensboro/High Point, where employment was down -7.6, -6.2, and -5.9 percent respectively. The smallest losses were in Winston-Salem, Greenville, and Fayetteville, where employment declined -2.6, -2.7, and -3.0 percent respectively.
The unemployment rate in North Carolina was 10.8 percent, down -0.1 percent from last month but up 4.2 percentage points over the past 12 months.
MSA Employment Growth
(percent change last 12 months)
The number of existing, single-family homes sold in the Triad totaled 1,418 in the 2nd quarter of 2009, after adjustment for seasonal variation. The number sold was down -10.7 percent compared to the level of sales recorded in the 1st quarter, and it was -35.4 percent below the number sold during the 2nd quarter one year ago.
Existing Homes Sold, 1997.1 – 2009.2
At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2009, the inventory of homes on the market was 8,314, or 4.7 times the number of homes sold in the 2nd quarter. At the current sales pace, it will take 14.1 months to exhaust the existing inventory. The number of existing homes offered for sale was up 0.1 percent from what it was at the end of the 1st quarter, but it was -6.1 percent lower than at the end of the 2nd quarter one year ago.
The price of the average home sold in the 2nd quarter was off -3.0 percent from the previous quarter. The average quality-adjusted price of an existing home in the Triad was $156,416. The average this quarter was down -11.7 percent from the average recorded in the 2nd quarter of last year. Over the past year, consumer prices nationally have slipped -1.4 percent, indicating that real home prices in the Triad have declined.
Nationally, the pace of existing home sales has fallen -3.6 percent over the past 12 months.² Average home prices are down -6.6 percent across the nation and -11.1 percent in the South. The national inventory of unsold homes is down -15.3 percent over the past 12 months and will take 9.6 months to sell at the existing pace of sales.
² This percentage is calculated from July 2008 to July 2009 using National Assn. of Realtors® data.
The number of real estate foreclosures in the Triad was up 2.7 percent in August and is up 18.8 percent over the past 12 months. Nationally, foreclosures are up 18.0 percent over the past 12 months.
Table 1: Triad Business Index
(August 2009)
% Chg |
% Chg |
|||||
Month |
Year |
|||||
| Indicators | August 2009 |
July 2009 |
June 2009 |
August 2008 |
Ago |
Ago |
| Piedmont-Triad Bus. Index | 159.1 |
158.7 |
158.4 |
160.9 |
0.3% |
-1.1% |
| NC Business Index | 170.2 |
170.2 |
170.2 |
173.4 |
0.0% |
-1.8% |
| Unemployment Rate | 11.0 |
11.1 |
11.2 |
6.7 |
-0.1 |
4.3 |
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 10,323 |
10,216 |
9,971 |
4,245 |
1.0% |
143.2% |
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 614.5 |
615.1 |
615.7 |
644.6 |
-0.1% |
-4.7% |
| Goods-producing | 113.2 |
113.7 |
114.3 |
129.4 |
-0.4% |
-12.5% |
| Construction | 25.7 |
25.8 |
26.1 |
31.3 |
-0.4% |
-17.9% |
| Manufacturing | 87.5 |
87.9 |
88.2 |
98.1 |
-0.5% |
-10.8% |
| Service-producing | 501.3 |
501.4 |
501.4 |
515.2 |
0.0% |
-2.7% |
| Wholesale Trade | 27.5 |
27.6 |
27.7 |
29.0 |
-0.4% |
-5.2% |
| Retail Trade | 65.5 |
65.6 |
65.8 |
69.0 |
-0.2% |
-5.1% |
| Transportation | 23.5 |
23.7 |
24.0 |
26.2 |
-0.8% |
-10.3% |
| Information | 7.9 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.8 |
-1.3% |
-10.2% |
| Financial | 35.9 |
35.9 |
36.0 |
37.5 |
-0.0% |
-4.3% |
| Prof. & Business | 75.3 |
75.0 |
74.8 |
81.0 |
0.4% |
-7.0% |
| Education & Health | 103.7 |
103.5 |
103.3 |
101.6 |
0.2% |
2.1% |
| Leisure | 58.0 |
57.7 |
57.5 |
58.4 |
0.5% |
-0.7% |
| Other | 25.9 |
25.8 |
25.8 |
26.5 |
0.4% |
-2.3% |
| Government | 77.8 |
77.7 |
77.6 |
77.8 |
0.1% |
0.0% |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | $1,560.8 |
$1,526.8 |
$1,527.0 |
$1,644.9 |
2.2% |
-5.1% |
| Residential Building Permits ($1,000s) | $45,879 |
$44,246 |
$42,338 |
$50,170 |
3.7% |
-8.6% |
| Real Estate Foreclosures | 890 |
867 |
835 |
749 |
2.7% |
18.8% |
| NATIONAL INDICATORS: | ||||||
| Unemployment Rate | 9.7 |
9.4 |
9.5 |
6.2 |
0.3 |
3.5 |
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 131,223.0 |
131,439.0 |
131,715.0 |
137,053.0 |
-0.2% |
-4.3% |
| Goods-producing | 18,571.0 |
18,707.0 |
18,829.0 |
21,351.0 |
-0.7% |
-13.0% |
| Service-producing | 112,652.0 |
112,732.0 |
113,886.0 |
115,702.0 |
-0.1% |
-2.6% |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | $351,418 |
$343,048 |
$343,136 |
$365,625 |
2.4% |
-3.9% |
| Res. Bldg. Permits (units in 1,000s) | 546 |
537 |
528 |
843 |
1.7% |
-35.2% |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI-U,sa) | 215.8 |
215.4 |
215.7 |
219.1 |
0.2% |
-1.5% |
| Index of Leading Eco. Indicators | 102.5 |
101.9 |
101.0 |
100.6 |
0.6% |
1.9% |
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 573,000 |
556,500 |
616,100 |
440,400 |
3.0% |
30.1% |
| ISM Purchasing Managers Index | 52.9 |
48.9 |
44.8 |
49.3 |
9.2% |
-0.8% |
All data are statistically adjusted to eliminate statistical aberrations unrelated to trend and cycle. Monetary figures are deflated by the CPI-U to reflect inflation-adjusted 2009 dollars.
Figures are compiled by Dr. G. Donald Jud, Bryan School of Business & Economics, UNCG, E-mail: Juddon@uncg.edu.Table 2: North Carolina Economic Indicators
Percent Change |
|||||
THIS |
LAST |
YEAR |
LAST |
YEAR |
|
| AREA INDICATORS: | MONTH |
MONTH |
AGO |
MONTH |
AGO |
| Asheville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 167.2 | 167.8 | 175.5 | -0.4% | -4.7% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | -0.1% | 3.4% |
| Burlington | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 57.4 | 57.6 | 60.3 | -0.3% | -4.8% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.8 | -0.2% | 4.7% |
| Charlotte | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 807.0 | 807.9 | 860.1 | -0.1% | -6.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.8 | -0.2% | 4.7% |
| Durham | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 282.1 | 282.8 | 292.5 | -0.2% | -3.6% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| Fayetteville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 126.7 | 126.9 | 130.6 | -0.2% | -3.0% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 6.7 | -0.1% | 2.2% |
| Goldsboro | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 43.3 | 43.3 | 45.0 | 0.0% | -3.8% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 6.3 | -0.2% | 2.6% |
| Greensboro/High Point | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 344.8 | 345.5 | 366.3 | -0.2% | -5.9% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 11.6 | 11.7 | 6.9 | -0.1% | 4.7% |
| Greenville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 75.6 | 75.7 | 77.7 | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.3 | 10.4 | 7.1 | -0.1% | 3.2% |
| Hickory | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 146.0 | 146.4 | 158.0 | -0.3% | -7.6% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 15.1 | 15.3 | 8.3 | -0.2% | 6.8% |
| Jacksonville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 45.6 | 46.0 | 47.5 | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.2 | 8.3 | 6.0 | -0.1% | 2.2% |
| Raleigh | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 503.7 | 503.8 | 520.6 | 0.0% | -3.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.5 | 8.6 | 5.3 | -0.1% | 3.2% |
| Rocky Mount | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 62.1 | 62.2 | 64.1 | -0.2% | -3.1% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 13.6 | 13.7 | 9.6 | -0.1% | 4.0% |
| Wilmington | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 139.1 | 139.5 | 145.7 | -0.3% | -4.5% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.1 | 10.2 | 6.3 | -0.1% | 3.9% |
| Winston-Salem | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 212.3 | 212.1 | 218.0 | 0.1% | -2.6% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.0 | 10.1 | 6.3 | -0.1% | 3.7% |
| North Carolina | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 3,913.6 | 3,924.6 | 4,124.3 | -0.3% | -5.1% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.8 | 10.9 | 6.6 | -0.1% | 4.2% |
Table 3: Triad Business Index Historical Values
Year |
Mo.
|
Index |
% Chg. |
Total Employment |
Goods Producing |
U/R |
2009 |
8 |
159.1 |
0.3% |
614.5 |
113.2 |
11.0 |
2009 |
7 |
158.7 |
0.2% |
615.1 |
113.7 |
11.1 |
2009 |
6 |
158.4 |
0.1% |
615.7 |
114.3 |
11.2 |
2009 |
5 |
158.0 |
0.1% |
616.1 |
114.9 |
11.2 |
2009 |
4 |
157.8 |
-0.1% |
616.8 |
115.6 |
11.1 |
2009 |
3 |
157.9 |
-0.2% |
618.7 |
116.8 |
10.8 |
2009 |
2 |
158.2 |
-0.3% |
621.7 |
118.5 |
10.3 |
2009 |
1 |
158.7 |
-0.4% |
625.6 |
120.6 |
9.6 |
2008 |
12 |
159.3 |
-0.4% |
630.1 |
123.0 |
8.9 |
2008 |
11 |
159.9 |
-0.3% |
634.6 |
125.3 |
8.2 |
2008 |
10 |
160.4 |
-0.2% |
638.9 |
127.1 |
7.6 |
2008 |
9 |
160.8 |
-0.1% |
642.4 |
128.5 |
7.1 |
2008 |
8 |
161.0 |
-0.1% |
644.6 |
129.4 |
6.7 |
2008 |
7 |
161.1 |
0.0% |
645.8 |
130.0 |
6.4 |
2008 |
6 |
161.1 |
0.0% |
646.9 |
130.7 |
6.1 |
2008 |
5 |
161.1 |
0.0% |
648.4 |
131.5 |
5.8 |
2008 |
4 |
161.1 |
0.1% |
650.5 |
132.4 |
5.6 |
2008 |
3 |
161.0 |
0.1% |
652.6 |
133.3 |
5.4 |
2008 |
2 |
160.9 |
0.1% |
654.1 |
134.1 |
5.2 |
2008 |
1 |
160.7 |
0.2% |
654.8 |
134.7 |
5.0 |
2007 |
12 |
160.4 |
0.2% |
654.7 |
135.1 |
4.9 |
2007 |
11 |
160.0 |
0.2% |
654.3 |
135.3 |
4.8 |
2007 |
10 |
159.7 |
0.1% |
653.8 |
135.4 |
4.7 |
2007 |
9 |
159.5 |
0.3% |
653.3 |
135.6 |
4.7 |
2007 |
8 |
159.1 |
0.2% |
653.0 |
135.9 |
4.7 |
2007 |
7 |
158.8 |
0.3% |
652.7 |
136.3 |
4.7 |
2007 |
6 |
158.4 |
0.3% |
652.4 |
136.6 |
4.7 |
2007 |
5 |
158.0 |
0.3% |
652.2 |
137.1 |
4.7 |
2007 |
4 |
157.6 |
0.3% |
651.9 |
137.6 |
4.7 |
2007 |
3 |
157.2 |
0.3% |
651.5 |
138.1 |
4.7 |
2007 |
2 |
156.8 |
0.2% |
651.3 |
138.6 |
4.8 |
2007 |
1 |
156.5 |
0.3% |
651.0 |
138.8 |
4.8 |
2006 |
12 |
156.1 |
0.3% |
650.3 |
138.7 |
4.8 |
2006 |
11 |
155.7 |
0.3% |
649.1 |
138.6 |
4.8 |
2006 |
10 |
155.2 |
0.3% |
647.6 |
138.6 |
4.8 |
2006 |
9 |
154.7 |
0.3% |
646.1 |
138.7 |
4.8 |
2006 |
8 |
154.3 |
0.3% |
644.9 |
138.8 |
4.8 |
2006 |
7 |
153.8 |
0.3% |
644.2 |
139.1 |
4.8 |
2006 |
6 |
153.3 |
0.5% |
643.4 |
139.4 |
4.7 |
2006 |
5 |
152.6 |
0.5% |
642.1 |
139.7 |
4.7 |
2006 |
4 |
151.9 |
0.5% |
640.3 |
139.8 |
4.7 |
2006 |
3 |
151.2 |
0.5% |
638.5 |
139.8 |
4.7 |
2006 |
2 |
150.5 |
0.4% |
636.7 |
139.8 |
4.7 |
2006 |
1 |
149.9 |
0.3% |
635.3 |
140.0 |
4.8 |