Center for Business and Economic Research
Guilford County Business Index
The level of economic activity in Guilford County, NC, as measured by the Guilford Business Index (1992 = 100), rose 0.9% in December (see Table 1). The index, which tracks the pace of economic activity in Guilford County, registered 153.8. This was the 7th consecutive monthly increase in the index since May.
Over the past year, economic activity in Guilford County has risen faster than in the Triad at large.¹ The Guilford Index has gained 1.6% compared to a 1.3% increase recorded by the Triad Business Index.
Guilford Business Index
(1992 = 100)
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate in Guilford County in December was 11.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the revised figure for November. The rate of unemployment this month was up from 8.7% one year ago.
The unemployment rate reflects the percentage of the labor force which is unemployed but actively seeking employment. It generally is considered to be a lagging economic indicator. The rate is tabulated each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics based on a nationwide survey of households.
Employment
The number of persons employed in Guilford County (from the household survey) stood at 217,600 up 0.1% from November. In comparison, national employment (from the household survey) declined 0.3% this month. Over the past 12 months, county employment has fallen 3.2%, while at the national level, employment (from the household survey) has dipped 3.9%.
The number that is reported here for persons employed in Guilford County is tabulated each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics based on its monthly household survey. It reflects the number of persons living in Guilford County who reported they were actively employed during the month. Employment normally is considered to by a very strong, consistent coincident indicator of economic activity.
Guilford County Employment
Initial Claims
Initial claims represent first-time filers for unemployment compensation and are generally considered a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. In December, initial claims moved down 7.9% and are down 16.5% over the past 12 months. There were 2,923 first-time filers for unemployment insurance this month, or 1.3% of those employed in the county. Nationally, claims declined 0.2% in December and represent 0.2% of those employed.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending is normally thought to be a coincident indicator of economic activity. Spending, as measured by retail sales, was up 0.3% in December, after correction for price-level change. Over the past year, retail sales have fallen 1.6% in Guilford County, while, at the national level, real retail sales were up 2.6%.
Guilford County sales tax collections reported in October were down 14.5% over the past 12 months, unadjusted for inflation. Collections were essentially unchanged in October.
Residential Building Permits
Planned building activity, as measured by total residential building permits rose 0.7% in December but are down 5.4% over the past year. Single-family permits were up 4.7% in December and have jumped 46.1% over the past year. At the national level, total residential permits gained 2.2% in December and are up 1.3% over the past year.
Residential building permits reflect the plans of builders for future residential construction. Permits generally lead actual building starts by 3 to 6 months and are considered an important leading indicator of future economic activity.
Building Permits
Housing Prices and Sales
Housing prices in Guilford County rose 3.2% in the 4th quarter and are up 1.7% from the same period one year ago. The number of homes sold jumped 9.3% in the 4th quarter and is up 25.2% from last year. The number of homes listed for sale is down 6.0% from the 4th quarter of last year. At the existing sales pace, it will take 9.5 months to exhaust the stock of homes on the market.
The housing sales and price data reported here are collected from the Triad Multiple Listing Service and reflect the sales and average prices paid for existing single-family homes in the county. Sale prices are quality adjusted to standardize the price series for size and other housing attributes. Housing sales and prices are a coincident indicator of economic activity. Generally, housing sales tend to lead any turn in housing prices.
Single-Family Existing Homes
(4th Quarter, 2009)
There were 333 real estate foreclosures in December and 3,835 over the past 12 months. The number in December was up 33.3% from December of last year. Foreclosures represent forced sales and are a depressing influence in the housing market.
Table 1: Guilford County Business Indicators
(December 2009)
% Chg |
% Chg |
|||||
Month |
Year |
|||||
| Monthly Indicators | Dec. 2009 |
Nov. 2009 |
Oct. 2009 |
Dec. 2008 |
Ago |
Ago |
| Guilford County Bus. Index | 153.8 |
152.4 |
151.0 |
151.4 |
0.9% |
1.6% |
| Piedmont-Triad Bus. Index | 154.3 |
153.6 |
152.8 |
152.2 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 2,923 |
3,174 |
3,393 |
3,499 |
-7.9% |
-16.5% |
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 217.6 |
217.3 |
217.0 |
224.9 |
0.1% |
-3.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 11.9 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
8.7 |
0.1 |
3.2 |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | 457.1 |
455.7 |
454.1 |
464.6 |
0.3% |
-1.6% |
| Residential Building Permits (units) | 139 |
138 |
138 |
147 |
0.7% |
-5.4% |
| Real Estate Foreclosures | 333 |
339 |
343 |
250 |
-1.8% |
33.3% |
| Guilford Co. Sales Tax Collections (Oct.) | $9,435,376 |
$9,431,273 |
$9,469,728 |
$11,034,263 |
0.0% |
-14.5% |
| Quarterly Indicators | ||||||
| Number of Existing Housing Sales | 903 |
826 |
728 |
721 |
9.3% |
25.2% |
| Avg. Housing Price | $205,155 |
$198,699 |
$193,758 |
$201,757 |
3.2% |
1.7% |
| Number of Homes on the Market | 2,862 |
3,007 |
3,152 |
3,046 |
-4.8% |
-6.0% |
| NATIONAL INDICATORS: | ||||||
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 215.9 |
216.3 |
216.2 |
210.2 |
-0.2% |
2.7% |
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 139,649 |
140,041 |
140,196 |
145,273 |
-0.3% |
-3.9% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.0 |
10.0 |
10.1 |
7.2 |
0.0 |
2.8 |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | $352,985 |
$353,328 |
$347,274 |
$344,133 |
-0.1% |
2.6% |
| Res. Bldg. Permits (units in 1,000s) | 616 |
603 |
588 |
608 |
2.2% |
1.3% |
| Real Estate Foreclosures | 349,519 |
306,627 |
333,290 |
303,930 |
14.0% |
15.0% |
| ISM Purchasing Managers Index | 55.9 |
53.6 |
55.7 |
32.9 |
4.3% |
69.9% |
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 472,700 |
492,900 |
517,200 |
557,500 |
-4.1% |
-15.2% |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) | 215.9 |
216.3 |
216.2 |
210.2 |
-0.2% |
2.7% |
All data are statistically adjusted to eliminate statistical aberrations unrelated to trend and cycle. Monetary figures are deflated by the CPI-U to reflect inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars.
Figures are compiled by Dr. G. Donald Jud, Bryan School of Business & Economics, UNCG, Phone: 336/334-3091 E-mail: Juddon@uncg.edu. This report is available on the Web at http://www.uncg.edu/~juddon