Triad Business Index
The level of economic activity in the Piedmont Triad, as measured by the Piedmont Triad Business Index (1992 = 100), was unchanged in November but has gained 2.4 percent over the past 12 months. In contrast, business activity in NC was off -0.1 percent this month and has gained 0.6 percent over the past year.
Triad Business Index
(1992 = 100)
The national index of leading indicators was down -0.4 percent in November, while the Purchasing Managers Index fell to 36.2, indicating a sharp drop in manufacturing and a recession in overall economic activity.
National Economic Indicators
¹ The Triad is defined as an eight-county area that is composed of Alamance, Davie, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph, Rockingham, Stokes, and Yadkin. The Triad is located in the north central area of North Carolina.
Two monetary indicators which normally lead any upturn in the national economy shifted strongly into positive territory. The real monetary base exploded upward by 70.9 percent over the past 12 months, as the Federal Reserve aggressively expanded its balance sheet extending credit to the banking system, and the spread between the 10-year T-bond and the federal funds rate (or the slope of the Treasury Yield Curve) rose to 3.1 percent as the Fed pushed down short-term lending rates.
Monetary Indicators
The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment in the Triad was 7.4 percent in November, up 2.6 percentage points over the past 12 months. The national unemployment rate was 6.7 percent, up 2.0 percentage points over the past year.
Unemployment Rate
(seasonally adjusted)
Initial claims for unemployment insurance are a leading indicator for the unemployment rate. Claims in the Triad were down -1.6 percent in November but have risen 45.7 percent over the past 12 months.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
(seasonally adjusted)
Total nonagricultural wage and salary employment (employer survey) in the Piedmont Triad was lower by -0.3 percent in November. Over the past 12 months, employment has gained 0.5 percent. For the nation as a whole, employment dipped -0.4 percent in November. Over the past 12 months, national employment has declined -1.4 percent.
Total Employment
(seasonally adjusted)
Goods-producing employment in the Triad was down -0.5 percent in November. At the national level, goods-producing employment was off -0.8 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of goods-producing jobs in the Triad has fallen -2.9 percent, while goods-producing employment nationally has declined -5.1 percent.
Goods Producing Employment
(seasonally adjusted, log scale)
The number of persons in the Triad employed in the service-producing sector slipped -0.2 percent in November. Over the past 12 months, the number of jobs in the service-producing sector has grown 1.4 percent, while service producing employment nationally has lost -0.6 percent. Over the past year, service-producing employment has grown most rapidly in government and education and healthcare services, where employment has increased 4.1 and 3.5 percent respectively. Employment has declined in transportation, information services, and retail trade.
Service-Producing Employment
(percent change last 12 months)
Residential building permits, which reflect planned construction, were off -8.4 percent this month. Over the past 12 months, the pace of planned residential building has fallen -53.6 percent. Construction employment has dropped -0.9 percent over the past year but was up 0.3 percent this month.
Residential Building Permits
(inflation-adjusted, normalized scale)
Retail sales totaled $1.7 billion in November. Corrected for inflation and seasonal variation, retail spending was up 0.6 percent from October but was down -5.8 percent from November of last year.
Total employment across the state has declined -1.2 percent during the past 12 months. Among major metropolitan areas, the largest percentage increases were in Jacksonville and Goldsboro where employment rose 4.8 and 2.2 percent respectively. Employment growth was slowest in Fayetteville and Hickory, where employment was down -1.8 percent. The unemployment rate in North Carolina was 7.9 percent, up 0.9 percentage points from last month and 3.2 percentage points over the past 12 months.
MSA Employment Growth
(percent change last 12 months)
The number of existing, single-family homes sold in the Triad totaled 1,719 in the 4th quarter of 2008, after adjustment for seasonal variation. The number sold was down -12.8 percent compared to the level of sales recorded in the 3rd quarter, and it was -28.1 percent below the number sold during the 4th quarter one year ago.
Existing Homes Sold, 1997.1 – 2008.4
At the end of the 4th quarter of 2008, the inventory of homes on the market was 7,801, or 5.2 times the number of homes sold in the 4th quarter. At the current sales pace, it will take 15.6 months to exhaust the existing inventory. The number of existing homes offered for sale was down -13.8 percent from what it was at the end of the 3rd quarter, and it was -4.8 percent lower than at the end of the 4th quarter one year ago.
The price of the average home sold in the 4th quarter was off -2.8 percent from the previous quarter. The average quality-adjusted price of an existing home in the Triad was $168,107. The average this quarter was down -6.7 percent from the average recorded in the 4th quarter of last year.
The number of real estate foreclosures in the Triad was down -2.1 percent in November and has fallen -3.4 percent over the past 12 months.
Real Estate Foreclosures
(log scale)
Table 1: Triad Business Index
(November 2008)
% Chg |
% Chg |
|||||
Month |
Year |
|||||
| Indicators | Nov. 2008 |
Oct. 2008 |
Sept. 2008 |
Nov. 2007 |
Ago |
Ago |
| Piedmont-Triad Bus. Index | 159.7 |
159.7 |
159.7 |
156.0 |
0.0% |
2.4% |
| NC Business Index | 168.0 |
168.2 |
168.5 |
167.0 |
-0.1% |
0.6% |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.4 |
7.2 |
6.9 |
4.8 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 3,904 |
3,966 |
4,018 |
2,680 |
-1.6% |
45.7% |
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 658.6 |
660.3 |
661.8 |
655.2 |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
| Goods-producing | 131.7 |
132.3 |
132.9 |
135.6 |
-0.5% |
-2.9% |
| Construction | 33.3 |
33.2 |
33.2 |
33.6 |
0.3% |
-0.9% |
| Manufacturing | 98.4 |
99.1 |
99.7 |
102.0 |
-0.7% |
-3.5% |
| Service-producing | 526.9 |
528.0 |
528.9 |
519.6 |
-0.2% |
1.4% |
| Wholesale Trade | 30.6 |
30.5 |
30.5 |
30.2 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
| Retail Trade | 72.3 |
72.4 |
72.6 |
72.5 |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
| Transportation | 25.0 |
25.1 |
25.3 |
26.6 |
-0.4% |
-6.0% |
| Information | 8.4 |
8.4 |
8.5 |
8.9 |
0.0% |
-5.6% |
| Financial | 38.1 |
38.1 |
38.1 |
37.9 |
0.0% |
0.5% |
| Prof. & Business | 83.5 |
83.7 |
83.8 |
82.1 |
-0.2% |
1.7% |
| Education & Health | 104.6 |
104.3 |
104.0 |
101.1 |
0.3% |
3.5% |
| Leisure | 61.0 |
60.9 |
60.8 |
59.4 |
0.2% |
2.7% |
| Other | 26.5 |
26.6 |
26.7 |
25.9 |
-0.4% |
2.3% |
| Government | 78.6 |
78.8 |
79.0 |
75.5 |
-0.3% |
4.1% |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | $1,709.7 |
$1,699.2 |
$1,729.0 |
$1,814.2 |
0.6% |
-5.8% |
| Residential Building Permits ($1,000s) | $41,840 |
$45,656 |
$49,508 |
$90,243 |
-8.4% |
-53.6% |
| Real Estate Foreclosures | 734 |
750 |
800 |
760 |
-2.1% |
-3.4% |
| NATIONAL INDICATORS: | ||||||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.7 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
4.7 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 136,167.0 |
136,700.0 |
137,020.0 |
138,037.0 |
-0.4% |
-1.4% |
| Goods-producing | 20,920.0 |
21,083.0 |
21,250.0 |
22,049.0 |
-0.8% |
-5.1% |
| Service-producing | 115,247.0 |
115,617.0 |
115,770.0 |
115,988.0 |
-0.3% |
-0.6% |
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | $355,655 |
$355,101 |
$362,192 |
$388,207 |
0.2% |
-8.4% |
| Res. Bldg. Permits (units in 1,000s) | 824 |
849 |
879 |
1,229 |
-2.9% |
-33.0% |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI-U,sa) | 212.4 |
216.6 |
218.8 |
210.2 |
-1.9% |
1.0% |
| Index of Leading Eco. Indicators | 99.0 |
99.4 |
100.3 |
102.8 |
-0.4% |
-3.7% |
| Initial Claims for Unemployment Ins. | 494,356 |
478,177 |
458,996 |
331,556 |
3.4% |
49.1% |
| ISM Purchasing Managers Index | 36.2 |
38.9 |
43.5 |
50.0 |
-10.6% |
-22.2% |
All data are statistically adjusted to eliminate statistical aberrations unrelated to trend and cycle. Monetary figures are deflated by the CPI-U to reflect inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars.
Figures are compiled by Dr. G. Donald Jud, Bryan School of Business & Economics, UNCG, Phone: 336/334-3091 E-mail: Juddon@uncg.edu. This report is available on the Web at http://www.uncg.edu/~juddon
Table 2: North Carolina Economic Indicators
(November 2008)
% CHANGE |
|||||
THIS |
LAST |
YEAR |
LAST |
YEAR |
|
| AREA INDICATORS: | MONTH |
MONTH |
AGO |
MONTH |
AGO |
| Asheville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 179.4 |
179.7 |
179.6 |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.1 |
5.9 |
3.8 |
0.2% |
2.3% |
| Burlington | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 60.9 |
61.1 |
61.5 |
-0.3% |
-1.0% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.8 |
7.6 |
5.1 |
0.2% |
2.7% |
| Charlotte | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 866.5 |
870.4 |
864.1 |
-0.4% |
0.3% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.6 |
7.4 |
4.9 |
0.2% |
2.7% |
| Durham | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 293.6 |
293.5 |
290.5 |
0.0% |
1.1% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.6 |
5.5 |
3.9 |
0.1% |
1.7% |
| Fayetteville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 50.5 |
50.6 |
51.4 |
-0.2% |
-1.8% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.2 |
7.0 |
5.2 |
0.2% |
2.0% |
| Goldsboro | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 46.3 |
46.3 |
45.3 |
0.0% |
2.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.9 |
6.7 |
4.8 |
0.2% |
2.1% |
| Greensboro/High Point | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 375.1 |
375.5 |
374.2 |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.6 |
7.4 |
4.9 |
0.2% |
2.7% |
| Greenville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 78.6 |
78.7 |
78.2 |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.8 |
7.6 |
5.1 |
0.2% |
2.7% |
| Hickory | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 160.7 |
161.2 |
163.6 |
-0.3% |
-1.8% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 8.9 |
8.7 |
6.0 |
0.2% |
2.9% |
| Jacksonville | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 48.2 |
48.0 |
46.0 |
0.4% |
4.8% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.4 |
6.3 |
4.5 |
0.1% |
1.9% |
| Raleigh | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 529.7 |
530.4 |
523.8 |
-0.1% |
1.1% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.9 |
5.7 |
3.7 |
0.2% |
2.2% |
| Rocky Mount | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 64.4 |
64.6 |
64.5 |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.7 |
10.4 |
6.3 |
0.3% |
4.4% |
| Wilmington | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 149.1 |
149.5 |
148.2 |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.0 |
6.8 |
4.3 |
0.2% |
2.7% |
| Winston-Salem | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 224.3 |
224.6 |
219.8 |
-0.1% |
2.0% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.1 |
6.8 |
4.5 |
0.3% |
2.6% |
| North Carolina | |||||
| Total Employment (1,000s) | 4,123.4 |
4,138.2 |
4,171.4 |
-0.4% |
-1.2% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.9 |
7.0 |
4.7 |
0.9% |
3.2% |
Table 3: Triad Business Index Historical Values
Year |
Mo. |
Index |
% Chg. |
Total Employment |
Goods Producing |
U/R |
2008 |
11 |
159.7 |
0.0% |
658.6 |
131.7 |
7.4 |
2008 |
10 |
159.7 |
0.0% |
660.3 |
132.3 |
7.2 |
2008 |
9 |
159.7 |
0.0% |
661.8 |
132.9 |
6.9 |
2008 |
8 |
159.7 |
0.1% |
662.9 |
133.3 |
6.7 |
2008 |
7 |
159.6 |
0.2% |
663.2 |
133.6 |
6.4 |
2008 |
6 |
159.3 |
0.3% |
662.4 |
133.7 |
6.1 |
2008 |
5 |
158.9 |
0.3% |
661.3 |
133.9 |
5.9 |
2008 |
4 |
158.4 |
0.4% |
660.3 |
134.2 |
5.6 |
2008 |
3 |
157.8 |
0.3% |
659.5 |
134.6 |
5.4 |
2008 |
2 |
157.3 |
0.3% |
658.7 |
134.9 |
5.2 |
2008 |
1 |
156.8 |
0.3% |
657.6 |
135.2 |
5.1 |
2007 |
12 |
156.4 |
0.3% |
656.4 |
135.4 |
4.9 |
2007 |
11 |
156.0 |
0.1% |
655.2 |
135.6 |
4.8 |
2007 |
10 |
155.8 |
0.1% |
654.3 |
135.8 |
4.7 |
2007 |
9 |
155.6 |
0.2% |
653.7 |
136.1 |
4.7 |
2007 |
8 |
155.3 |
0.3% |
653.3 |
136.3 |
4.7 |
2007 |
7 |
154.8 |
0.3% |
652.7 |
136.6 |
4.7 |
2007 |
6 |
154.3 |
0.3% |
651.9 |
136.8 |
4.7 |
2007 |
5 |
153.8 |
0.3% |
651.1 |
137.1 |
4.7 |
2007 |
4 |
153.4 |
0.1% |
650.5 |
137.5 |
4.7 |
2007 |
3 |
153.2 |
0.1% |
650.2 |
138.1 |
4.7 |
2007 |
2 |
153.1 |
0.1% |
650.2 |
138.6 |
4.8 |
2007 |
1 |
153.0 |
0.1% |
650.2 |
138.9 |
4.8 |
2006 |
12 |
152.9 |
0.2% |
649.8 |
139.0 |
4.8 |
2006 |
11 |
152.6 |
0.3% |
648.9 |
139.0 |
4.8 |
2006 |
10 |
152.2 |
0.3% |
647.7 |
139.0 |
4.8 |
2006 |
9 |
151.8 |
0.2% |
646.3 |
139.0 |
4.8 |
2006 |
8 |
151.5 |
0.1% |
645.0 |
138.9 |
4.8 |
2006 |
7 |
151.3 |
0.1% |
644.0 |
139.0 |
4.8 |
2006 |
6 |
151.1 |
0.3% |
643.1 |
139.2 |
4.7 |
2006 |
5 |
150.7 |
0.3% |
641.9 |
139.5 |
4.7 |
2006 |
4 |
150.3 |
0.4% |
640.3 |
139.6 |
4.7 |
2006 |
3 |
149.7 |
0.5% |
638.5 |
139.7 |
4.7 |
2006 |
2 |
149.0 |
0.4% |
636.8 |
139.8 |
4.7 |
2006 |
1 |
148.4 |
0.3% |
635.4 |
140.0 |
4.8 |
Figures are compiled by Dr. G. Donald Jud, Bryan School of Business & Economics, UNCG, Phone: 336/334-3091 E-mail: Juddon@uncg.edu.