ECONOMICS 351.01

Economic and Business Statistics II

Fall 2004

 

 

1. Course Objective

To introduce you to applied regression analysis and related statistical models; to show you how to apply these models in business and economics and interpret their results.

 

2. Vital Data

            Instructor:  Andrew C. Brod

            Office:  460 Bryan Building, phone 334‑4867, e-mail AndrewBrod@uncg.edu

            Office hours:  By appointment

            Class website:  www.uncg.edu/eco/brod/eco351

 

3. Text

A Second Course in Business Statistics: Regression Analysis (6th ed.), by William Mendenhall and Terry Sincich, 2003.

 

The key to understanding what’s behind the statistical methods in ECO 351 is prac­tice, practice, practice.  The data sets from Mendenhall and Sincich are available on the class website, and you should use them early and often to work out the problems in the text.

 

4. Grading System

Your course grade will be based on the following:  Three homeworks (worth a total of 15%), two midterm exams (each worth 25%), and a final exam (35%).  I will assign final grades according to a 87.5-75-62.5-50 scale.  However, I reserve the right to award, at my discretion, a letter grade above that indicated by a student’s numerical course score if that student has improved significantly and worked hard throughout the course.

 

5. Midterm Exam Dates

The first exam will be held in class on Thursday, September 16, and the second exam will be held on Tuesday, October 19.

 

6. Final Exam Date

Thursday, December 9, 8-11 a.m.

 

7. Midterm Exam Policy

Each midterm will be a closed-book exam, except that you will be allowed to refer to notes you write on one (1) 8½ ´ 11 sheet of paper.  In addition, I will provide you with copies of the statistical tables from the textbook, if needed.

 

There will be no make-ups for missed midterm exams.  If you provide me with a valid reason for missing a midterm, the grade weight from that missed exam will added to that of your final exam.  For example, one excused absence from a midterm will cause the final exam to be worth 60% of your course grade instead of just 35%.

 

If your absence from a midterm is unexcused or if I deem your excuse not to be valid, then you will receive a zero grade for that exam.

 

8. Final Exam Policy

The final exam will cover all material in the course, although more weight will be placed on material covered since the second midterm.  Like the midterms, the final will be a closed-book exam, with the two exceptions listed above.

 

If you miss the final, you must notify me in writing as soon as possible, providing an explanation of why you missed it.  You should include evidence of your claim, such as a receipt from the tow­ing service, a note from Academic Advising, or a note from your physician.  If I deem your explanation to be legitimate and timely, I will allow you to take a make-up final.  If you miss the final without a legitimate excuse, you will receive a zero grade.

 

If you know ahead of time of a conflict, tell me about it in writing.  If your request is reasonable and you get it to me by the last regular class meeting, I’ll allow a make-up final.

 

9. Bad weather policy

Neither classes nor exams will be cancelled unless the University is officially closed.  In case of bad weather, listen for a cancellation announcement on radio or TV.  If we have a midterm scheduled for a day on which the University closes, the exam will be re­sched­uled for the next class meeting.

 

10. Computer content of the course

In this course you will use UNCG’s campus network, edit text files, and perform simple word-processing.  In addition, the computer language SAS will play an integral role in this course (and is a valuable skill to be able to claim on a resumé).  SAS will be new to most of you, but we’ll take time early in the semester to learn the basic SAS skills needed to get you going in the course.  The homework assignments will require SAS to solve them, and I’ll ask some SAS-specific questions on the exams.

 

11. Class Attendance

Regular class attendance is the best way to ensure steady and productive learning.  It’s also a good way to demonstrate to me that you’re working hard (see item #4 above).  But because it is your responsibility to decide how often to attend, I will not take attendance.

 

12. Honor Code

Students are expected to know and abide by the UNCG Academic Honor Code.  Vio­la­tions of the Honor Code during exams or on homeworks will be penalized.  The homeworks make up part of your course grade, hence students should do their own work on these pro­jects.  If you have a question, see me or send me a message.

 

13. Course Outline

 

      1.   Introduction and Review:  Chapters 1-2

            Introduction to SAS

      2.   Simple Regression:  Chapter 3 (except 3.11)

      3.   Multiple Regression:  Chapters 4-5 (except 5.6 and 5.11)

      4.   Problems and Diagnostics:  Chapters 7-8 (except 8.5), plus sections 9.4, 10.5, and 10.8

      5.? Logistic Regression:  Sections 9.5-9.6

      5.? Time Series and Forecasting:  Chapter 10 (except 10.6-10.7 and 10.10)

      5.? Analysis of Variance:  Chapter 12

 

We will definitely make it through Topic 4, at which point we may be in a position to start one of the three possibilities for our fifth topic.