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DAN T. ROSENBAUM – NBA RESEARCH

 

Up until early in 2003, the NBA had been nothing but a “hobby” of mine.  (My “real” research was mostly in the area of tax and welfare programs.)  But I do take my “hobbies” seriously, and in the summer of 2002 I had done some poking around trying to find out how the hundreds of millions of dollars of luxury and escrow taxes would be returned to the teams – an issue that was receiving far too little attention in the press.  With help from some sportswriters and a group of experts outside of the League, I was able to come up with the basic structure of these distributions back to the teams.  Largely through this process, a variety of people have come to see me as an “expert” on NBA luxury tax and other financial/collective bargaining agreement issues – resulting in a number of citations in press outlets.  In addition, I have done some unofficial consulting for a couple NBA teams, and I was a paid consultant for the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) in three of their strategy sessions in Spring 2003. 

 

Since early in 2003, I have begun to turn this “hobby” into part of my research agenda, and I now have three NBA-related working papers, which hopefully will be just the beginning of an interesting research agenda into labor market issues in the NBA and professional sports leagues.  Strangely enough, my previous work examining labor market distortions due to tax and welfare programs is very useful in thinking about the even more distorted labor markets in professional sports.  And given the abundance (and often the unique nature) of data on professional sports, the data-intensive nature of the empirical work in this area fits nicely with my other areas of research.  Most recently, I have received quite a bit of attention for my work using plus/minus data to evaluate which teams help their teams win. 

 

NBA-related research papers.

1.       “The Brave New World of the NBA Luxury Tax,” March 2004.

2.       “It Doesn’t Pay to be Young in the NBA,” September 2003.

  • Presented at Appalachian State (November 2004).

3.       “How the NBA Turned a Trickle of Underclassmen Leaving School Early into a Flood,” September 2003.

·         Presented at University of Pennsylvania (April 2005), Trinity University (April 2003), and UNC-Greensboro (April 2003).

 

Here are links to articles (in the press or on web-sites) that I have written.

1.       Dan Rosenbaum’s NBA Blog, updated regularly.

2.       “Mutually Beneficial: Nash’s Move to Phoenix Propels Suns and Mavericks,” SI.com, May 13, 2005.

3.       “Keeping Score: A Statistical Holy Grail: The Search for the Winner Within,” New York Times, April 10, 2005.

4.       “Keeping Score: A Welfare System for N.B.A. Owners,” New York Times, March 6, 2005.

5.       “Entering the Brave New World of Luxury Tax,” RealGM.com, July 2, 2003.

6.       “The Brave New World of the Luxury Tax,” RealGM.com, August 21, 2002.

 

Other NBA-related papers.

1.       “Defense is All about Keeping the other Team from Scoring,” published at 82games.com, August 2005.

2.       “Re-negotiating the Collective Bargaining Agreement,” June 2005.

·         Published at RealGM.com.

·         Older Version, with Andy Stein, June 2003.

3.       “A Guide to Fantasy Basketball Owners – 2004-05,” October 2004.

4.       “Forget the Olympics – Americans are Losing their Dominance in the NBA” August 2004.

5.       “Will There Be a Luxury Tax in 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06?” April 2004.

·         Published at RealGM.com.

6.       “Picking the Difference-Makers for the All-NBA Teams,” April 2004.

·         Published at 82games.com.

7.       “Measuring How NBA Players Help their Teams Win,” April 2004.

·         Published at 82games.com.

 

Here are media links where I have been cited.

1.       Stirling Faux Show, CKNW – Vancouver, British Columbia, August 6, 2005.

2.       “Managing Money,” San Jose Mercury News, written by John Ryan, July 22, 2005.

  • Reprinted on Yahoo.com.

3.       “Trying to Get a Cap to Fit: With the NHL set to vote on a labor deal that includes its first salary cap, teams are hiring specialists to deal with all of its nuances,” Los Angeles Times, written by Helene Elliott, July 20, 2005.

4.       “Teams turn to 'capologists' for assistance: 'Steep learning curve': Complex new rules create need for number crunchers,”  National Post, written by Sean Fitz-Gerald, July 15, 2005.

5.       “In NBA, 19 has become hot number,” Baltimore Sun, written by Childs Walker, June 23, 2005.

6.       “The CBA, A Trade Checker Change And Game 7 In Shots, Slams And Charges,” written by Christopher Reina, June 22, 2005.

7.       “Of Allen, Adelman and a functional 'Dream Team',” ESPN.com, written by John Hollinger, April 29, 2005.

8.       “How to end the flood of NBA teens,” CNN/Money.com, written by Chris Isidore, April 29, 2005.

9.       “Statistics gurus work their way into NBA offices,” South Florida Sun-Sentinel, written by Michael Cunningham, April 17, 2005.

10.   “When statistics collide,” South Florida Sun-Sentinel, written by Michael Cunningham, April 17, 2005.

11.   “Why Dirk is MVP,” DallasBasketball.com, written by David Lord, April 7, 2005.

12.   “New Magic hopes more money means more wins,” Orlando Sentinel, written by Brian Schmitz, October 3, 2004.

·         Reprinted on more than a dozen newspaper web-sites, including Akron Beacon Journal, Kansas City Star, and Miami Herald.

13.   “Riding high: Jordan takes interest in motorcycle team, Bulls' young guns,” SI.com, written by Marty Burns, September 16, 2004.

·         Reprinted on Yahoo.com.

14.   “International Players Are Closing The Gap,” RealGM.com, written by Kevin Broom, September 14, 2004.

15.   “Nuggets are offseason champs,” ESPN.com, written by Marc Stein, September 13, 2004.

16.   “Burning Questions for Owners, Players,” ESPN.com, written by Scott Burnside, August 16, 2004.

17.   “July Trade Analysis,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, July 28, 2004.

18.   “NBA Free Agent Madness,” Salon.com, written by King Kaufman, July 22, 2004.

19.   Paxson ready for free agency . . . on a budget,” Chicago Daily Herald, written by Mike McGraw, July 1, 2004.

20.   “Free Agency 2004: A Primer,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Chris Connor, June 30, 2004

21.   “The Future of NBA Statistics: Part Three,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, June 18, 2004.

22.   “The Future of NBA Statistics: Part Two,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, June 14, 2004.

23.   “The Future of NBA Statistics: Part One,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, May 22, 2004.

24.   “The Last NBA Crusade,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, May 3, 2004.

25.   “Salary-cap climate could work in Bobcats' favor,” Charlotte Observer, written by Rick Bonnell, May 2, 2004.

26.   “Tax could be coming after all,” ESPN.com, written by Marc Stein, April 26, 2004.

27.   “The Economically Efficient NBA Team,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, March 11, 2004.

28.   “A Face for the NCAA or the NBA,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Kevin Pelton, February 23, 2004.

29.   “What Steinbrenner could do for Magic,” Orlando Sentinel, written by Mike Bianchi, February 17, 2004.

·         Reprinted in San Jose Mercury News.

30.   “2004 Team Valuations,” Forbes, February 16, 2004.

31.   “Can the Sixers play badly enough to get lottery pick?” Allentown Morning Call, written by Jeff Schuler, February 1, 2004.

32.   “NBA luxury tax may disappear before it affects Bulls,” Chicago Daily Herald, written by Mike McGraw, December 23, 2003.

33.   “Some pleasant tax talk, for once,” ESPN.com, written by Marc Stein, December 21, 2003.

34.   “New York Still Not Sold on Knicks,” ESPN.com, written by Darren Rovell, November 13, 2003.

35.   “Bobcats See Advantage in Draft Position,” Charlotte Observer, written by Rick Bonnell, August 24, 2003.

36.   “NBA Rumor Mill: Kenyon’s Conundrum,” Hoopsworld.com, written by Steve Kyler, August 24, 2003.

37.   “The Interview: Dan Rosenbaum,” Greensboro News & Record, written by Jim Young, August 17, 2003.

38.   “Overpay in the NBA?  You’ll Pay,” Indianapolis Star, written by Sekou Smith, August 3, 2003.

39.   “His Issue is a Taxing One,” Northwest Indiana Times, written by Sean P. Hayden, August 1, 2003.

40.   “Players’ Share of Basketball Income Rises,” Street & Smith’s SportsBusiness Journal, written by Liz Mullen, July 21, 2003.

41.   “Free Agents to Benefit from Cap Increase,” ESPN.com, written by Darren Rovell, July 16, 2003.

42.   “Young Stars’ Best Move is to Get to the NBA Fast,” Dallas Morning News, written by Richard Alm, June 28, 2003.

·         Reprinted in San Jose Mercury News, Pasadena Star-News, Arizona Republic, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, Denton Record-Chronicle, Whittier Dailey News, and Saint Paul Pioneer Press.

43.   “Is Dwayne Wade the 4th Option?” Hoopsworld.com, written by Steve Kyler, June 15, 2003.

44.   “NBA Taking a Shot on its Luxury Tax,” Dallas Morning News, written by Richard Alm, June 14, 2003.

·         Reprinted in San Jose Mercury News.

45.   “Owed to Donald Sterling,” ESPN.com, written by Darren Rovell, April 17, 2003.

46.   “How to Make NBA Trades Less Taxing,” ESPN.com, written by Marc Stein, February 24, 2003.

 

NBA news web-sites

ESPN.com     CNNSI.com     NBA.com     Yahoo     RealGM.com     Hoopsworld.com     Hoopshype.com

NBA message boards

basketballboards.net     RealGM.com     Association of Professional Basketball Researchers (APBR)     APBRmetrics

Other useful NBA-related sites

·         Larry Coon’s NBA Salary Cap/CBA FAQ – a must read for anyone interested in understanding the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement.

·         The 1999 NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement – on-line version provided by the NBPA.

·         Patricia’s Various Basketball Stuff – data on NBA player salaries since mid 1980s, all transactions since mid-1990s, treasure trove of information.

·         Doug Steele’s Statistics – fabulous player and team data for the NBA and MLB.

·         82games – numerous NBA statistics that are not available in any other publicly available source.

·         Rodney Fort’s Sports Business Data – variety of financial data for NBA, NFL, MLB, and other sports.

·         Basketball-reference – great analytical historical NBA statistics.

·         Knickerblogger Statistics – analytical NBA statistics from current season.

·         PopcornMachine – interesting NBA game flow data.

 

And for the three of you who might care (such as my mom), I was a reasonably good athlete back in my day.

·         First Team Division III Academic All-American Football Team in 1991 and 1992 (Second Team in 1990).

·         Winner of Woody Hayes National Scholar-Athlete Award (six awards each year to one male and one female in each of the three NCAA divisions).

·         Coached by Mike Kelly, highest winning percentage among active NCAA football coaches with 15 or more years of experience (Jon Gruden was a few years ahead of me).

·         Won Division III National Championship in 1989 (runner-up in 1991).

·         Record of 39-0-1 regular season record in four-year college football career.

·         Coached by Ken Schreiber, three-time national high school baseball coach of the year.

·         Won state championship in high school baseball in 1986 (vote co-national champions).

·         Captain of high school baseball, basketball, and football teams.

And for someone more interesting than me, I give you my wife Julie.

·         Works as a financial manager at the Music Academy of North Carolina.

·         Received baking and pastry certificate from Kendall College Culinary Arts Institute, learned under French Master Pastry Chef Kader Temkkit.

Webmaster: Dan T. Rosenbaum

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This page last edited 8/25/05